This year’s May Day holiday, the city was as lively as the tourist spots. Sisi, a seasoned film industry insider touring Lanzhou, watched two movies from afar, in cinemas that were fully booked. A movie theater located in a non-core business district in Beijing also attracted many moviegoers. The theater is situated on the sixth floor of a small lifestyle plaza, and although the rest of the mall was quiet, the theater was buzzing with people.
The audience was diverse, including young people, the elderly, and children, many of whom queued up to purchase popcorn. According to Maoyan data, the box office for the first two days of the May Day holiday has already surpassed 800 million yuan, exceeding last year’s 650 million yuan. The top movies included “Peacekeeping Riot Squad,” “Money Crazy,” and “The Siege of Kowloon City,” while highly anticipated films such as “Nothing a Hotpot Can’t Solve” and “Journey Across the Moon” fell short of expectations at the box office.
Industry insiders had high hopes for this year’s May Day holiday, estimating that the total box office could reach 1.8 billion yuan, up from last year’s 1.52 billion. This confidence stemmed from the eight films released this year, covering genres such as comedy, romance, main melody, mystery, and animation, including “Peacekeeping Riot Squad,” Miyazaki’s classic anime “Howl’s Moving Castle,” and “Nothing a Hotpot Can’t Solve” among many others.
However, at the start of the holiday, many cinemas were caught off guard, hesitant in scheduling screenings. This was because well-received movies like “Howl’s Moving Castle,” scored as high as 9.1, action movie “The Siege of Kowloon City,” and the animated film “Spy × Family: Codename: White” maintained ratings over 7, but these films weren’t mainstream, so their box office success was hard to predict. “Money Crazy” could potentially achieve high box office due to its comedic nature, but with its strong regional characteristics in storytelling, its estimated total box office was just under 900 million yuan, lower than “Unfamiliar Paths” at 1.184 billion yuan, and it garnered only a 6.4 score on Douban.
Additionally, changes in the market environment have made audiences more discerning in their film choices. Factors that once had a steady impact on the box office, such as star power and well-known IPs, have weakened in recent years. Even with a large fan base, the movie “Peacekeeping Riot Squad” starring Wang Yibo had an opening day seating rate of just 14.1%, akin to last year’s May Day film “The King of the Skies”; while “Money Crazy” had a seating rate of 25.7%, and Yang Mi’s film “Nothing a Hotpot Can’t Solve” reached just over 40 million yuan in two days.
No matter the final outcome, this year’s May Day film slate has undoubtedly warmed up the market. However, a Beijing movie theater manager described the current box office situation as “very chaotic,” citing the large discrepancies between the actual performance and expectations of multiple films.
Manager Zheng, with over ten years of cinema management experience, has a deep understanding of local audience preferences. His carefully planned May Day screening schedule featured the action movie “Peacekeeping Riot Squad” starring Wang Yibo, followed by Miyazaki’s classic animation “Howl’s Moving Castle,” and other films like the comedy “Money Crazy,” animation “Spy × Family: Codename: White,” and the Hong Kong film “The Siege of Kowloon City.” This plan took into account predictions from multiple data platforms, star power, and the characteristics of the cinema’s primary audience (children and students) for a comprehensive judgment. Based on past experience, such screenings could maintain stable box office for at least three days, even without a comprehensive understanding of the films’ word-of-mouth, by leveraging fan effects and IP attraction.
However, Manager Zheng’s screening plan soon encountered a twist. Just on the afternoon of May Day, he had to consider significantly adjusting the scheduling ratios, planning to reduce the screenings of “Peacekeeping Riot Squad,” “Howl’s Moving Castle,” and “Nothing a Hotpot Can’t Solve,” while increasing the screenings for the action movie “The Siege of Kowloon City” starring Louis Koo. The next day, after many viewers responded positively to the quality of “Money Crazy,” he decided to give this film more screening opportunities.
Similar to the situation faced by Manager Zheng, Manager Tao, the cinema manager located in Zhejiang, is also wondering whether to increase the number of showings for “The End of the Money Road”. To his surprise, this Northeastern comedy, which was initially thought to appeal to regional tastes, showed unexpectedly strong box office performance, even though the actors, such as Jia Bing and Xiao Shenyang, were not anticipated to attract such box office support.
After consulting with several cinema managers from places like Shanghai and Yunnan, it was found that opinions on the best-performing films during the May Day holiday varied and the scheduling of screenings seemed random. They generally believe that intuitive data such as the number of movies audiences want to see, word of mouth about the films, and the fame of the stars, no longer have as significant an impact on box office performance as before. For example, “Howl’s Moving Castle”, which received extremely high praise, did not perform as well at the box office as “Spy x Family: Code Name: White”, another film of a similar genre. The film starring Yang Mi, “There’s Nothing a Hot Pot Can’t Solve”, and “Through the Moon’s Journey”, starring Zhang Zifeng and Hu Xianxu, only earned a modest box office return of thirty to forty million yuan in the first half of the holiday.
As of now, more than halfway through the May Day holiday, the box office disparity among the eight films of this period is not significant. Leading the way, “Peacekeeping Riot Squad”‘s box office is close to 250 million yuan, followed closely by “The Siege of Kowloon Walled City” and “The End of the Money Road” both approaching 200 million yuan, with “Spy x Family: Code Name: White” surpassing 100 million yuan. Due to the plethora of films released during this May Day holiday, audience choice has become more random. Many cinema managers have observed that audiences tend to buy tickets on-site rather than in advance, adding unpredictability to box-office forecasting. When asked which film was most attractive to their audiences, the answers were diverse, indicating that nowadays, the audience’s choice in films is not overly dependent on genre and stars, and there is similar randomness in selecting films on a whim.
Ultimately, in these five major categories, eight films emerged, and so far, no unexpected “dark horse” has appeared, and the market competition has not shown a clear distinction between winners and losers.
The May Day holiday is approaching, and the film market will experience a peak in viewership during this golden holiday. During this period, a total of eight films will compete in the market. These films have been deeply analyzed and divided into three different tiers.
First Tier: Dominating this tier are “Peacekeeping Riot Squad”, “The Siege of Kowloon Walled City”, and “The End of the Money Road”.
“Peacekeeping Riot Squad”, with its actors’ strong draw, is the top choice for many cinemas. The film not only offers grand scenes with a strong visual impact, but critics have also pointed out that its plot is fragmented and lacks logic. According to data from Maoyan Professional, the box office is expected to break 600 million yuan, which is slightly lower than last year’s final box office result for “The King of the Skies”, starring the same lead actor.
“The Siege of Kowloon Walled City” wins audience acclaim with its exciting fight scenes and intriguing character development, earning a high score of 7.5 on Douban. However, the clichéd background story involving generational conflicts and a tale of growth for the younger generation does not affect the audience’s fondness for this film.
“The End of the Money Road”, as a Northeastern comedy, is bound to attract a wide audience. The film tells the story of a middle-aged man wrongly diagnosed with terminal brain cancer and his three close friends who choose to squander their life savings unexpectedly. The amusing plot struck a chord with many viewers, even though the “misdiagnosis” part has been criticized by some. Besides, the movie also explores the dilemmas faced by middle-aged men, such as financial issues, and their profound brotherly bonds. The Douban score is 6.4.
Second Tier: This tier is composed of two Japanese anime movies, Spy x Family: Code Name: White and Howl’s Moving Castle, both of which have attracted a large number of fans and viewers.
Spy x Family: Code Name: White is adapted from the manga of the same name by Japanese manga artist Endo Tatsuya, telling the touching story of a fake family of spies working together to save the world. While simple and direct, suitable for all audiences, it remains a favorite among followers, with a Douban score of 7.6.
As for Howl’s Moving Castle, it is a work directed by Hayao Miyazaki in 2004, which has a wide fan base in China and enjoys a high Douban score of 9.1. With its unique artistic style and deeply moving storyline, it has made many fans willing to pay for this sentiment. Nevertheless, its box office is still limited by its relatively niche audience base, and current forecasts predict a box office of less than 200 million yuan.
Some movies have had lackluster box office performances during the May Day holiday. Especially, films like Traveling Through the Moon, Nothing A Hotpot Can’t Solve, and GG Bond: Kung Fu Pork Choppers – Interstellar Adventure had relatively dim box office achievements, with predictions difficult to break the 100 million yuan mark. Among these three films, the romantic love film Traveling Through the Moon, starring Zhang Zifeng and Hu Xianxu, was criticized with many feeling the storyline was a letdown. Specifically, despite the film’s attempt to attract viewers with the theme of a long-distance relationship, the interactions between the main characters were not as engaging as those of the supporting roles, leaving audiences bewildered after watching.
The film Nothing A Hotpot Can’t Solve, starring Yang Mi, opened with a Douban score of 6.5 but fell short in integrating suspense and comedy. Even though the content and details were handled properly, it was slightly lacking in evoking audience emotions. As for GG Bond: Kung Fu Pork Choppers – Interstellar Adventure, targeted at a children’s audience, it struggled to make waves in a broader market.
So far this year, the May Day movie season has not seen an unexpected blockbuster hit, but still achieved respectable box office results. Compared to last year, the box office on the first day increased to 412 million yuan, exceeding last year’s 315 million yuan, although not reaching 2021’s 457 million yuan, and far below 2019’s 600 million yuan level. At the same time, the first day of this year also set a record for the highest number of screenings for China’s May Day holiday, with 497,000 sessions surpassing the records of previous years.
Observing the average ticket price on the first day of the May Day slot, we find that the prices from the nearest to the furthest year have been 40.5 yuan, 40.7 yuan, 38.1 yuan, and 44.1 yuan, respectively. Considering the comprehensive factors of box office, screenings, and ticket price, this year’s revenue per cinema session is higher than last year, but did not meet the 2021 standard. This indicates a rebound in audience enthusiasm for movies, yet it is not back to peak levels.
As for the box office on the second day of May Day, it also increased to 343 million yuan, surpassing last year’s 332 million yuan, but still below the results of 2021 and 2019. This result has the industry feeling both relieved and concerned. Relieved because compared to last year’s sluggish May Day, this year’s box office has seen a significant improvement. Many cinema managers stated that although the holiday has not yet concluded, this year’s box office revenue is expected to exceed last year’s. A manager was even more certain of this, believing that the situation this year will definitely be better than last year. They believe that this year’s movie season has improved in terms of thematic richness and watchability, providing more choices for the audience.
However, some insiders have expressed concerns, thinking that it is becoming increasingly difficult for cinemas to accurately grasp the tastes of audiences. Moreover, the importance of the May Day movie season is rising. Last year, people rarely went to the cinema outside of holidays, leading to difficulties in boosting off-season box office. The industry has noticed that from the Spring Festival to the period before May Day, although many high-quality films were released, the box office often only reached around 20 million yuan. The industry generally hopes to use the May Day period to achieve revenue, as the next major movie season will not be until the summer vacation. Cinemas, as the downstream segment of the movie industry, cannot fully control the quality and reputation of films and can only strive to improve performance through film scheduling and audience services. In response, many cinemas are also implementing measures to reduce costs, increase efficiency, and refine operations to meet this challenge.
“The critical aspect of May Day’s cinema scheduling is the technique of arranging film showtimes, with all major films vying for peak periods.” In the current movie market, the strategy for scheduling film showtimes has become particularly important. Cinema managers have expressed that 7pm has become the golden time slot competed over by all blockbuster films, so movie theaters must carefully balance their scheduling decisions.
In terms of improving cinema operations, it’s noteworthy that even for special showings that aren’t costly, such as those in a moon-themed series, theaters should consider carefully whether it’s necessary to arrange them. For example, “Journey Across the Moon” has designed a range of moon-related activities such as “Heart Signs under the Moon,” “Meet under the Moon,” and “Moon Viewing Platforms,” aimed at bringing a unique viewing experience to the audience.
For such events, after the movie ends, theaters adjust the screen to show a still image of the moon for the audience to take pictures and check in. Although the cost is almost negligible compared to snow-themed showings in previous years, many theaters are still cautious about it.
Some managers in the industry have indicated implementing these special screenings can be quite complicated because it requires switching to a different screen after the movie, which also takes up additional time.
Meanwhile, many movie theaters are also promoting membership cards to attract audiences by offering great deals such as tickets for 9.9 yuan, 19.9 yuan, etc., with these advertisements usually shown before the film starts.
Some theaters are recruiting and scouting talents to make up for their shortcomings in terms of user base. One newly-joined manager shared his experience in attracting student and fan audiences, noting that his theater previously had more white-collar viewers and fewer student groups, so his primary task was to grow this segment of the user base.
As the remaining time of the May Day holiday continues to dwindle, theaters are still actively adjusting their strategies in hopes of gaining more competitive advantages in the market.
